The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin this year:
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will work with partners across NOAA, academia, and private industry to gather critical data throughout the season and continue to advance hurricane models to protect lives and property.
- NOAA’s flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), has been upgraded for the 2025 season. Developed by researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab (AOML), the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), the National Weather Service’s Environmental Modeling Center and other NOAA partners, HAFS is a key tool for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. The upgrade will improve forecasts of hurricane tracks, intensity, initial conditions, storm structure, and storm size. The new HAFS is expected to improve forecasts of rapid intensification, defined as an increase of winds by 30 knots in 24 hours, by 5-7%.
- While hurricane forecasters use the upgraded HAFS, researchers at AOML will be running an experimental HAFS to test the benefits of the next leap forward for the flagship hurricane forecast model.
- To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, AOML, in partnership with CIMAS and private industries, is deploying new small aircraft drone systems, swarms of atmospheric profilers, and underwater gliders this season. These technologies will continue to advance our knowledge of hurricanes, fill critical data gaps, and improve hurricane forecast accuracy.
A team of scientists and forecasters, including scientists from AOML, work together to create the Atlantic hurricane season outlook each year. To read the full 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, please visit NOAA.gov. To dive deeper into the 2025 hurricane research plans, please visit NOAA Research.
Media contact: Monica.Allen@noaa.gov
